سايكس بيكو في مرحلتها الثالثة وخطوط تقسيم الجغرافيا النفطية

حسن خليل غريب

في أعقاب احتلال العراق في العام 2003، كتمهيد لاحتواء المنطقة العربية، ولأنه مُني بالفشل الذريع بفعل انطلاقة المقاومة الوطنية العراقية وإلحاق الهزيمة بقوات الاحتلال الأميركي، إندلعت حروب تقسيم المنطقة على قواعد الجغرافيا الطائفية، في العام 2011، حسب خرائط برنارد لويس، واستناداً إلى نتائجها الفاشلة أصيبت بالكثير من الندوب والكسور، ومن أهمها:
إسقاط الأنظمة التي قامت حركات الإسلام السياسي بتأسيسها على جماجم الانتفاضات الشعبية في تونس ومصر، ومنع وصولها إلى الحكم في سورية وليبيا.
بروز أطماع دول الإقليم في بناء أحلام إمبراطوروية قديمة كانت قد سقطت، ولكنه تبيَّن أن أحلامها لم تسقط، بل عادت إلى الظهور المستقل بفعل مشاركتها في تنفيذ مشروع الشرق الأوسط الجديد.
ولما كان حلم بناء إمبرطورية أميركية يحتاج إلى دعم وإسناد ومشاركة من دول الإقليم من أجل اكتمالها، لم تضع الولايات المتحدة الأميركية في حسبانها أنها أفلتت عفاريت الأطماع الإقليمية من قمقمها، إذ راحت كل منها، إيران وتركيا، تعمل من أجل بناء مشروعها الطائفي الخاص بها. ولذلك راحت الأحلام الإمبرطورية الإقليمية تسلك مسارات الاستقلالية في تنفيذ أحلامها خارج الخطوط التي رسمتها الولايات المتحدة الأميركية، مستفيدة من خلخلة الأنظمة العربية الرسمية وتفتيت نسيجها الاجتماعي والسياسي والجغرافي وأصبحت أكثر عجزاً من أي وقت مضى. وهذا واقع يتناسب مع أطماع الدول الإقليمية، وهو الوقت الذي يسمح لها، كما حسبت، بتنفيذ مشاريعها من دون عقبات تُذكر.
ولما لمست القوى الدولية، وفي المقدمة منها الولايات المتحدة الأميركية، مخاطر المشاريع الإقليمية على مصالحها. ومنذ تلك اللحظة، وكما تدل الوقائع على الأرض، أخذت مسارات مشروع الشرق الأوسط الجديد ووسائل تنفيذه تتغيَّر وتخرج عن الأهداف التي رسمتها الإدارة الأميركية، فما هي تلك المتغيرات التي حصلت؟

مفاهيم سايكس بيكو بطبعاتها الثلاث
ترافقت اتفاقية سايكس –بيكو مع أهداف تقسيم الوطن العربي ونفذتها ، وهذا ما أعطاها طابع المفهوم المرتبط ارتباطاً وثيقاً مع التفتيت والتقسيم، ولذلك سوف نستخدم مصطلح (سايكس – بيكو) لكل مشروع استعماري يهدف إلى تحقيقهما. وبمراجعة تاريخية لمشاريع التقسيم نستطيع أن نميِّز ثلاثة منها، وهي:
سايكس – بيكو العام 1917بخطوطها الجغرافية السياسية. وهي التي تم تنفيذها ابتداء من نهاية الحرب العالمية الأولى.
سايكس – بيكو بخطوطها الجغرافية الطائفية. وهي التي وضعها برنارد لويس في أواخر السبعينيات من القرن العشرين، وأقرَّها الكونغرس الأميركي في أوائل الثمانينيات من القرن ذاته. وابتدأ تنفيذه النظري باحتلال العراق، وتنفيذه العملي في العام 2011.
سايكس – بيكو بخطوطها الجغرافية النفطية، وهي التي يتم اعتمادها بعد تعثُّر مخطط التقسيم الطائفي. وهو موضوع مقالنا هذا.
كان من المرسوم له دولياً، وبالتحديد أميركياً، أن تستفيد كل الأطراف المشاركة، دولياً وإقليمياً، من المشروع المرسوم للتقسيم حسب الخطوط الجغرافية الطائفية (مشروع الشرق الأوسط الجديد) الذي وضعه برنارد لويس، ولكن على أن تكون أميركا هي من يحدد حجم الحصص ومقاديرها. ولكن انفلات الأحلام الإقليمية من قيودها الأميركية، أخذت المسارات الأميركية في التنفيذ تتبدَّل من أجل إعادة الأحلام الإقليمية إلى أحجامها الطبيعية.
لقد وجدت الولايات المتحدة الأميركية أن سايكس بيكو الجديدة، القائمة على قواعد التقسيم والتفتيت الطائفي، قد خلقت لها من المشاكل والتعقيدات أكثر مما كانت تتصور، ووجدت أنها لن تؤدي الأغراض التي من أجلها رسم برناد لويس خطوطها. ومن أجل تصحيح تلك المسارات، فقد وُلِدت سايكس بيكو ثالثة، ولكنها بطبعتها الجديدة هو تحويل الخطوط من طائفية إلى خطوط جغرافية نفطية.

سايكس – بيكو الثالثة تجمع بين الخطوط الطائفية والخطوط النفطية:
علماً أن المشروع الجديد، كما يعبِّر عنه مصطلح (اتفاقية سايكس – بيكو) بخطوطها الجغرافية النفطية، هي خليط يجمع، أينما تيسَّر لها الجمع، بين الخطوط الجغرافية الطائفية، والخطوط الجغرافية النفطية لأنها تكون أكثر طواعية للهيمنة عليها لأن الكيانات الطائفية تكون عادة بحاجة إلى حماية خارجية في مواجهة أي عامل داخلي. ولأن المشروع بحلة سايكس – بيكو يتضمَّن الهدف الاستراتيجي حماية (أمن النفط) كهدف استراتيجي دائم بغض النظر عن شكله ولونه، فقد وضعته الإدارة ، بحلته الجديدة (سايكس – بيكو الثالثة)، من أجل الهيمنة على الجزء الأكبر من النفط، بعد أن عجزت عن الاستيلاء عليه كاملاً عبر مشروع الشرق الأوسط الجديد، المتمثل بطبعة سايكس – بيكو الثانية. وهذا ما يستوجب طرح السؤال التالي: لماذا تراجعت الولايات المتحدة الأميركية عن مشروعها الأول واستبدلته بمشروعها الثاني؟

المتغيرات الإقليمية والدولية فرضت نزول أميركا تحت سقف مشروع الشرق الأوسط الجديد:

بعد فشلها، باحتلال العراق في العام 2003، وتنفيذ مشروع الشرق الأوسط الجديد في العام 2011، حصلت متغيرات جديدة على المستوى الدولي والإقليمي ومن أهمها متغيران اثنان:

المتغير الأول: بروز القوة الروسية، وانخراطها بقوة في منع خسارة الأرض السورية لأنها تشكل لها آخر بقعة جغرافية في المنطقة العربية، التي بخسارتها تخسر روسيا آخر موطئ قدم لها في المياه الدافئة.

المتغير الثاني: بعد الفشل شبه الكامل لمشروع تقسيم المنطقة العربية حسب الخطوط الطائفية، برزت أطماع الدول الإقليمية، إيران وتركيا، بالاستفدة من المشروع الأميركي الأم لحصد أكبر حصة لهما في الخريطة العربية.
نتيجة بروز هذين المتغيرين، وعلى قاعدة أن مرونة المنهج الرأسمالي الأميركي، لا يعمل وفق مبدأ (إما الكل أو لا شيء)، بل وفق مبدأ (ما لم تحصل عليه كله، فليكن جُلُّه)، كان على الولايات المتحدة الأميركية أن تُكيِّف استراتيجيتها وفق تلك المتغيرات. ولما انسحبت أميركا من العراق، كانت قد تركت (وتد جحا) فيه وفق الاتفاق الدفاعي الذي وقَّعت عليه مع (حكومة العملية السياسية) التي جاءت بها ، ذلك الوتد كان عبارة عن قواعد عسكرية وظيفتها حماية آبار النفط العراقية. كما أعلنت انسحابها من سورية، وتركت (وتد جحا) فيها لحماية آبار النفط في شمالها. وما بقاء تلك القواعد الرمزية سوى للمساومة بقوة وجودها العسكري الرمزي لتوظيفه في الحصول على أكبر حصة ممكنة من نفط القطرين العربيين، وذلك عندما تحين فرصة الاتفاق النهائي مع القوى المهيمنة على كل منهما.
ففي العراق، ولأنها دفعت الثمن بالأرواح وبالمال، تعمل الولايات المتحدة الأميركية، بعد وصول دونالد ترامب إلى رئاسة الولايات الأميركية المتحدة، على استعادة ما تحسب أن النظام الايراني نافسها فيه من جهة، والاستيلاء على القرار السياسي بواسطة حكومة مصطفى الكاظمي من جهة أخرى.
وأما في سورية، وبفشل مشروع إسقاط النظام السوري، بسبب التدخل الروسي، وتفرُّد النظام التركي بتنفيذ مشروعه بمعزل عن أميركا ثانياً، فقد أرغم العاملان معاً على تغيير آليات الاستيلاء على النفط السوري بكامله، إلى الرضى بالحصول على جزء منه في الشمال، عبر حمايتها للأكراد.

القوى الأوروبية دخلت طرفاً فاعلاً في صياغة بنود اتفاقية سايكس – بيكو النفطية:
جنباً إلى جنب الضغط الأميركي، أخذت الدول الأوروبية تدخل كطرف مباشر في الصراع الدائر ضد أطماع الدول الإقليمية، بحيث تتقاطع مع الولايات المتحدة الأميركية في جوانب، وتتلاقى معها في جوانب أخرى، ولكن هدف الاستيلاء على النفط واحتكاره والسيطرة على منابعه وتسويقه كان يجمعهما، ولكن هذه المرة بتقسيم الحصص بينهما. وإنه من سياقات الأحداث أخذت المواقف الأوروبية تتقارب مع المواقف الأميركية بالنسبة للضغط المفترض على النظام الإيراني من أجل إضعاف إمساكه، بعد أن تضخَّم دوره وإمكانياته، بما حصل عليه من مكتسبات جغرافية وسياسية واقتصادية في أربع عواصم عربية، وإعادته إلى حجمه الطبيعي ليواصل دوره كملحق بالمشروع الرأسمالي الدولي ومنفذ لاهدافه في المنطقة . وهذا ما راح يؤكده الموقف الفرنسي، بمبادرته تجاه الوضع في لبنان. وإن تقاسم الهيمنة على القرار النفطي في بعض الدول العربية يبدو واضحاً في تناغم واضح بين كل من الإدارة الأميركية والدول الأوروبية. ومن أهم مظاهر التناغم والتنسيق كان الإسناد الأميركي للقوى الأوروبية في حوض البحر الأبيض المتوسط للإمساك بالقرار النفطي في كل من ليبيا ولبنان، يقابله إسناد أوروبي للإدارة الأميركية في حوض القطاع الشرقي للوطن العربي للإمساك بالقرار النفطي في كل من العراق وسورية.
وأصبح من الواضح أيضاً أن الجهود الغربية تنصبُّ في العمل على إضعاف العامل الإقليمي في التأثير على الساحة العربية. والذي يعني إضعاف إمساك النظامين الإيراني والتركي بالقرار النفطي في مشرق الوطن العربي ومغربه.
وهنا تجدر الإشارة إلى أن الدول الأوروبية، بعد أن كانت من القوى الملحقة بالقرار الأميركي قبل احتلال العراق وبعد احتلاله، فقد ارتفع سقف دورها إلى الموقع المقرر في مستقبل الثروة النفطية في حوض البحر الأبيض المتوسط. وهذا ما جعلها تعمل بحيوية متزايدة في المرحلة الراهنة.

المشروعان التركي والإيراني يترنحان تحت وطأة الضغطين الأميركي والأوروبي:
آخذين بالاعتبار الصراع التاريخي، الفارسي – العثماني، نرى بداية من المفيد أن نوضح رؤيتنا بالنسبة للدورين الإيراني والتركي، في مرحلة ما بعد العام 2011، بالإشارة إلى أنهما كانا ينسقان مواقفهما في حدود معينة ، ولكن هذا التنسيق أخذ يضعف وحل بديلاً عنه التسابق على حيازة حصة أكبر في مرحلة المشروع بطبعته الثالثة أي المرحلة الحالية، الأمر الذي دفع النظام التركي للتدخل في الشأن الليبي من جهة، والنظام الإيراني إلى الدفاع عن مكتسباته بالحصول على أربع عواصم عربية.
وإذا كانت الأطماع التاريخية قد جمعت النظامين اللدودين، وبعد أن أُصيب الضغط التركي بالوهن بعد مغامرته الفاشلة في ليبيا، فإن الأطماع الفارسية أخذت تشكل الخطر الحقيقي لأن النظام الإيراني قد استولى استيلاء شبه كامل على أربع عواصم عربية، وأمسك بها إمساكاً خطيراً، وخطورته تكمن في أنه يستفيد من قطاعات شعبية واسعة يسعى الى اخضاعها كي تدين له بالولاء الأيديولوجي الطائفي.
بين هذا الموقع الإقليمي وذاك، تتميز المرحلة الحالية بتضافر الجهود الغربية، أميركياً وأوروبياً، لمواجهة الاستيلاء الإقليمي على الوطن العربي. وهذا ما جعله في أدنى حدود الضعف. وآثاره واضحة الظهور في الوهن الذي أصاب النظام التركي في محاولة الاستيلاء على ليبيا. وكذلك الوهن الذي أصاب النظام الإيراني في العراق من خلال حصار ميليشياته وملاحقتها لتجريدها من السلاح، وقطع دابر استيلائها على ثروات العراق. وأما ما يُقال عن مراهنة النظام الإيراني على نتائج الانتخابات الأميركية فهو نوع من الأوهام.
صحيح أن أية إدارة أميركية حريصة على إبقاء النظام الإيراني حياً يُرزق للاستفادة من تأثيره في تفتيت نسيج المجتمع العربي طائفياً، ولكن مصلحة الاقتصاد الأميركي، بحماية منابع النفط، هي الهدف الاستراتيجي لأية إدارة أميركية. ولهذا فقد غاب عن أذهان الحالمين بدولة ولاية الفقيه أن الرأسمالية الأميركية لا ترى أية أولوية تسبق هدف بناء اقتصاد أميركي قوي يسمح لأميركا بالمحافظة على سيطرتها على الاقتصاد العالمي. ولكن على النظام الإيراني أن لا يحلم بأكثر من أن يكون خادماً في بلاط الإمبراطور الأميركي.

النظام الإيراني سيخرج مرغماً من معادلة توازن القوى في صراعه مع الإدارة الأميركية:
اتفقت الإدارة الأميركية مع النظام الإيراني على مساعدتها في احتلال العراق ، وازداد الاتفاق تعميقاً بعد الاحتلال ، فدفع العراق الثمن باهظاً، وباهظاً جداً. والآن يتنافسان على الغنيمة، وسيكون الثمن من دماء العراقيين وأرواحهم وأرزاقهم أيضاً. وإذا كان من مصلحة للعراقيين فستكون عبر انتظار نتائج صراع الحليفين المزعوم في أن يلغي أحدهما الآخر، وأما النتائج فلن تكون في مصلحة النظام الإيراني، لأن الهدف الغربي المشترك، أوروبياً وأميركياً، هو تجفيف مصادر القوة المالية للنظام، وهو ما يعني إضعافاً لتأثيره وتأثير حلفائه أينما كان في الوطن العربي، وخاصة في العراق وسورية ولبنان واليمن.
في استشراف المستقبل للتحرر من هيمنة الاستعمار:
لا بد في نهاية المقال من الإشارة إلى أنه إذا كان الداء في هذه المرحلة متمثلاً بلجم قوة الأطماع الإقليمية في الوطن العربي والعمل على اقتلاعها، فإن الدواء لن يكون عبر الهيمنة الخارجية، وبالأخص منها الهيمنة الغربية على هذا الوطن. ومن أجل مواجهة مفاعيله الخطيرة على العرب كلهم، كما على الدول الإقليمية. ولأن الوضع الطبيعي في العلاقات الدولية يفترض ان يكون هناك ترابطاً وثيقاً بين مصالح الشعب العربي وأنظمته الرسمية من جهة، ومصالح دول الجوار العربي من جهة أخرى، لذا عليهم أن يدركوا أن العلاقات الصادقة القائمة على حسن الجوار من جهة، وقيام الأنظمة الرسمية بتطبيق قواعد العدالة الاجتماعية من جهة أخرى، تشكل طريق الخلاص للجميع. ولأن هذا الأمر يحتاج إلى بعض التفصيل نترك الكلام عنه لمقال آخر.

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